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According to calculations from domestic excavator parts manufacturers, cumulative sales in the first three quarters reached a record high, with annual sales possibly exceeding 200000 units. The market performance was better than expected, and the trend of increase in the fourth quarter is optimistic.
Domestic excavator parts manufacturer: In September 2018, 13408 excavators were sold, with a year-on-year increase of 28% and a month on month increase of 16%. The cumulative sales from January to September were 156242 units, with a cumulative year-on-year increase of 53%. During this period, Sany Heavy Industry sold 3529 units, a year-on-year increase of 47%, a month on month increase of 25%, and a cumulative year-on-year increase of 59%; XCMG sold 1500 units, with a year-on-year increase of 27%, a month on month increase of 8%, and a cumulative year-on-year increase of 77%; Liugong sold 814 units, a year-on-year increase of 26%, which is basically the same as the month on month increase, with a cumulative year-on-year increase of 79%.
The sales volume of excavators in September increased by 28% year-on-year, and the cumulative sales volume in the first three quarters reached a record high: the sales volume of excavators in September was 13408 units, with a year-on-year increase of 28% and a month on month increase of 16%. Q1-Q3 excavator sales reached 156000 units, surpassing the historical high of 152000 units in 2011. It is estimated that Q4 excavator sales are expected to reach 50000 units (+30% year-on-year). According to research data from domestic excavator accessory manufacturers, the production schedule of construction machinery in the second half of the year is good, with a continuous cold season and the possibility of monthly sales increase. It is estimated that the annual sales volume is expected to exceed 200000 units (+43% year-on-year). The height of cranes and concrete machinery relay excavators has increased, and the shortage of cranes will continue until the end of Q3 (+50% for the whole year).
Sany Heavy Industry remains at the top of the list, and the market share of domestic brands continues to increase. From the perspective of key enterprises, Sany Heavy Industry sold 3529 units in September, with a monthly market share of 26.32%, leading the industry in terms of growth rate and maintaining a stable leading position; From January to September, the cumulative sales volume was 35627 units, with a cumulative market share of 22.80%. Caterpillar, XCMG, and Doosan followed closely behind, with monthly market shares of 12.28%, 11.19%, and 6.41%, respectively. This month, the market share of domestic brands was 58.32%, with a month on month increase of+0.17 pct. The market proportions of Japanese, Korean, and European American excavator brands are 15.06%, 9.97%, and 16.65%, respectively. Among them, the proportion of European and American brands continues to decline slightly, while the proportion of Japanese and Korean brands continues to rise. The monthly year-on-year growth rates of Doosan, Komatsu, and Hitachi are significantly lower than those of professional brands.
Export sales continued to increase year-on-year, with the growth rate of large-scale excavators ahead of small and medium-sized excavators: In September, the export sales of excavators reached 1689 units, with a year-on-year increase of+75% and a stable proportion of 12.61%. Export sales continued to exceed expectations. Since 2018, the year-on-year growth rate of excavator exports has remained above 70%, and exports are becoming a new growth point. Domestic manufacturers have been overseas for many years, entering the harvest period, adding to the driving effect of the engineering demand along the "the Belt and Road" on excavator exports, and domestic excavator accessories manufacturers estimate that the export sales will still maintain a high growth in the future. Domestically, the eastern, central, and western regions achieved sales of 3925, 3676, and 4101 units respectively, an increase of 41%, 29%, and 5% year-on-year, with market shares of 29.31%, 27.45%, and 20.63% respectively. The sales growth rate in the western region declined year-on-year, while the market share in other regions remained stable. Based on the analysis of tonnage sales, the sales volume of small excavators, medium excavators, and large excavators in September were 6731 units, 4495 units, and 2182 units, respectively, accounting for 50%, 34%, and 16% of the sales volume, an increase of 34.84%, 17.27%, and 30.58% year-on-year. Due to the relatively fast growth rate and high base of sales in 2017, the growth rate of sales in Zhongda Mining has slowed down and the proportion has slightly decreased; The growth rate of small-scale mining increased by 2.22pct month on month, and its proportion continued to expand.
The growth rate of investment in downstream real estate has slightly slowed down, and it is expected that the development of infrastructure will benefit construction machinery: the completed investment in real estate in August increased by 9.2% year-on-year, and the cumulative year-on-year increase from January to August was 10.1%; The newly started construction area of houses increased by 26.6% year-on-year in a single month, and the cumulative year-on-year increase from January to August was 15.9%, indicating a slowdown in the growth rate of real estate investment. The cumulative year-on-year increase in infrastructure investment from January to August was 4.2%. Recently, with the relaxation of national policies, the approval of infrastructure projects represented by transportation infrastructure has significantly accelerated, and infrastructure investment is expected to rebound. Looking at the whole year, domestic excavator parts manufacturers estimate that infrastructure investment will increase by 8% year-on-year. In addition, the tightening of environmental protection checks will accelerate the release of updated requirements, and the transition from National III to National IV standards is expected to promote the early release of updated requirements, prolonging the business cycle of the construction machinery industry.